Jarun 4–0 Croatia Zmijavci: Result & Stats

Jarun

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Croatia Zmijavci

3/7/2026

First NL · Round 21Igralište Nogometni Klub Jarun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Jarun47%

×Draw25%

Croatia Zmijavci28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JarunExpected goals in this matchCroatia Zmijavci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.15

Jarun

1.59

Croatia Zmijavci

1.15

Jarun creates 38% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 109 away

1.51

creates per match

0.90

1.40

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Jarun

1.51

Croatia Zmijavci

0.90

allows per match

Jarun

1.40

Croatia Zmijavci

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jarun+0.00on par

Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarun ↓

Croatia Zmijavci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jarun or draw

72%

Jarun or Croatia Zmijavci

75%

Draw or Croatia Zmijavci

53%

Winning margin

Jarun wins by 2+

24%

Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jarun 1+ goals

80%

Jarun 2+ goals

47%

Jarun 3+ goals

21%

Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals

68%

Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals

32%

Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jarun (draw refunded)

63%

Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarun at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 80 matches

Croatia Zmijavci away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.67 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarun attack 1.51 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Croatia Zmijavci attack 0.90 + Jarun defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jarun scores more

47%

level

25%

Croatia Zmijavci scores more

28%

Jarun at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jarun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff