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Jarota Jarocin vs Radunia Stężyca — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Jarota Jarocin
Jarota Jarocin
FT
0 – 3
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
11/7/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jarota Jarocin16%
×Draw19%
Radunia Stężyca65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarota Jarocin
1.07
Radunia Stężyca
2.33

Radunia Stężyca creates 118% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Jarota Jarocin
1.33
Radunia Stężyca
3.06

allows per match

Jarota Jarocin
1.59
Radunia Stężyca
0.82

finishing

Jarota Jarocin+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarota Jarocin ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jarota Jarocin or draw
35%
Jarota Jarocin or Radunia Stężyca
81%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
84%

Winning margin

Jarota Jarocin wins by 2+
6%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Jarota Jarocin 1+ goals
66%
Jarota Jarocin 2+ goals
29%
Jarota Jarocin 3+ goals
9%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
90%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
67%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Jarota Jarocin (draw refunded)
20%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarota Jarocin at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarota Jarocin attack 1.33 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Jarota Jarocin defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jarota Jarocin scores more
16%
level
19%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
65%

Radunia Stężyca at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Jarota Jarocin 0–3 Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Jarota Jarocin 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jarocin.