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Jarota Jarocin vs Chemik Police — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Jarota Jarocin
Jarota Jarocin
FT
1 – 1
Chemik Police
Chemik Police
4/24/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jarota Jarocin58%
×Draw20%
Chemik Police21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarota Jarocin
2.17
Chemik Police
1.24

Jarota Jarocin creates 75% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Jarota Jarocin
1.33
Chemik Police
0.88

allows per match

Jarota Jarocin
1.59
Chemik Police
3.00

finishing

Jarota Jarocin+0.00on par
Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarota Jarocin ↓

Chemik Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jarota Jarocin or draw
79%
Jarota Jarocin or Chemik Police
80%
Draw or Chemik Police
42%

Winning margin

Jarota Jarocin wins by 2+
36%
Chemik Police wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jarota Jarocin 1+ goals
89%
Jarota Jarocin 2+ goals
64%
Jarota Jarocin 3+ goals
36%
Chemik Police 1+ goals
71%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
35%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jarota Jarocin (draw refunded)
73%
Chemik Police (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarota Jarocin at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarota Jarocin attack 1.33 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Jarota Jarocin defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jarota Jarocin scores more
58%
level
20%
Chemik Police scores more
21%

Jarota Jarocin at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jarota Jarocin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jarota Jarocin vs Chemik Police

Jarota Jarocin and Chemik Police drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jarocin.