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Järfälla vs Stocksund — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Järfälla
Järfälla
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 2
Stocksund
Stocksund
6/22/2022Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 14Järfällavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Järfälla36%
×Draw20%
Stocksund43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Järfälla
1.99
Stocksund
2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 47 away

creates per match

Järfälla
2.37
Stocksund
3.00

allows per match

Järfälla
1.34
Stocksund
1.60

finishing

Järfälla+0.00on par
Stocksund+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Järfälla ↓

Stocksund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Järfälla or draw
57%
Järfälla or Stocksund
80%
Draw or Stocksund
64%

Winning margin

Järfälla wins by 2+
19%
Stocksund wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Järfälla 1+ goals
86%
Järfälla 2+ goals
59%
Järfälla 3+ goals
32%
Stocksund 1+ goals
89%
Stocksund 2+ goals
64%
Stocksund 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Järfälla (draw refunded)
46%
Stocksund (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Järfälla at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

Stocksund away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Järfälla attack 2.37 + Stocksund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.99

Stocksund attack 3.00 + Järfälla defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Järfälla scores more
36%
level
20%
Stocksund scores more
43%

Stocksund at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stocksund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Järfälla 1–6 Stocksund

Stocksund beat Järfälla 6-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Järfällavallen in Järfälla.