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Järfälla vs Stockholm Internazionale — Ettan - Norra 2019

Järfälla
Järfälla
Preview
14:00
Stockholm Internazionale
Stockholm Internazionale
8/1/2026Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 15Jarfallavallen
53%
Stockholm Internazionale
model favours
25%22%53%

Stockholm Internazionale have scored in 16 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Järfälla25%
×Draw22%
Stockholm Internazionale53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Järfälla
1.23
Stockholm Internazionale
1.91

Stockholm Internazionale creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 66 away

creates per match

Järfälla
1.33
Stockholm Internazionale
1.65

allows per match

Järfälla
2.17
Stockholm Internazionale
1.14

finishing

Järfälla+0.00on par
Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Järfälla ↓

Stockholm Internazionale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Järfälla or draw
47%
Järfälla or Stockholm Internazionale
78%
Draw or Stockholm Internazionale
75%

Winning margin

Järfälla wins by 2+
10%
Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Järfälla 1+ goals
71%
Järfälla 2+ goals
35%
Järfälla 3+ goals
13%
Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals
85%
Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals
57%
Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Järfälla (draw refunded)
32%
Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Järfälla at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Stockholm Internazionale away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Järfälla attack 1.33 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stockholm Internazionale attack 1.65 + Järfälla defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Järfälla scores more
25%
level
22%
Stockholm Internazionale scores more
53%

Stockholm Internazionale at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stockholm Internazionale have won 5 in a row
  • Stockholm Internazionale are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Both teams score in 92% of Järfälla’s matches
  • 75% of Järfälla’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Stockholm Internazionale have won 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Järfälla
WLDLL
Internazionale
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Järfälla host Stockholm Internazionale

August 1, 2026: Järfälla take on Stockholm Internazionale in Ettan - Norra. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Järfälla host Stockholm Internazionale at Jarfallavallen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.