Järfälla 0–2 Stockholm Internazionale

Järfälla

FT

0 – 2

Stockholm Internazionale

10/2/2021

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 27Järfällavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Järfälla31%

×Draw21%

Stockholm Internazionale48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JärfällaExpected goals in this matchStockholm Internazionale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

2.17

Järfälla

1.74

Stockholm Internazionale

2.17

Stockholm Internazionale creates 25% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 21 away

2.37

creates per match

3.00

1.34

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Järfälla

2.37

Stockholm Internazionale

3.00

allows per match

Järfälla

1.34

Stockholm Internazionale

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Järfälla+0.00on par

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Järfälla ↓

Stockholm Internazionale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Järfälla or draw

52%

Järfälla or Stockholm Internazionale

79%

Draw or Stockholm Internazionale

69%

Winning margin

Järfälla wins by 2+

16%

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Järfälla 1+ goals

82%

Järfälla 2+ goals

52%

Järfälla 3+ goals

25%

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals

89%

Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals

64%

Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Järfälla (draw refunded)

40%

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Järfälla at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

Stockholm Internazionale away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Järfälla attack 2.37 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.74

Stockholm Internazionale attack 3.00 + Järfälla defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Järfälla scores more

31%

level

21%

Stockholm Internazionale scores more

48%

Stockholm Internazionale at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff