Järfälla 1–4 Djurgardens IF: Result & Stats

Järfälla

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Djurgardens IF

8/13/2025

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundStockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Järfälla11%

×Draw13%

Djurgardens IF75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JärfällaExpected goals in this matchDjurgardens IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

3.23

Järfälla

1.21

Djurgardens IF

3.23

Djurgardens IF creates 167% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

1.60

creates per match

3.25

3.20

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Järfälla

1.60

Djurgardens IF

3.25

allows per match

Järfälla

3.20

Djurgardens IF

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Järfälla+0.00on par

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Järfälla ↓

Djurgardens IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–37%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Järfälla or draw

25%

Järfälla or Djurgardens IF

87%

Draw or Djurgardens IF

89%

Winning margin

Järfälla wins by 2+

4%

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Järfälla 1+ goals

70%

Järfälla 2+ goals

34%

Järfälla 3+ goals

12%

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

96%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

82%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Järfälla (draw refunded)

13%

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Järfälla at home — creates 1.60, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Järfälla attack 1.60 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.21

Djurgardens IF attack 3.25 + Järfälla defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 3.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Järfälla scores more

11%

level

13%

Djurgardens IF scores more

75%

Djurgardens IF at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff