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Järfälla vs Dalkurd FF — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Järfälla
Järfälla
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
L. M. Gasser 27'
J. Hedivi 23'
K. Okafor 84'
F. Strangborn 53', 40', 36'
8/11/2024Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 16Järfällavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Järfälla64%
×Draw18%
Dalkurd FF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Järfälla
2.53
Dalkurd FF
1.29

Järfälla creates 96% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 13 away

creates per match

Järfälla
2.37
Dalkurd FF
1.23

allows per match

Järfälla
1.34
Dalkurd FF
2.69

finishing

Järfälla+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Järfälla ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Järfälla or draw
82%
Järfälla or Dalkurd FF
82%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
36%

Winning margin

Järfälla wins by 2+
42%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Järfälla 1+ goals
92%
Järfälla 2+ goals
71%
Järfälla 3+ goals
46%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
72%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
37%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Järfälla (draw refunded)
78%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Järfälla at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Järfälla attack 2.37 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.53

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + Järfälla defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Järfälla scores more
64%
level
18%
Dalkurd FF scores more
18%

Järfälla at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Järfälla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
J. Hedivi
27'
L. M. Gasser
36'
F. Strangborn
40'
F. Strangborn
53'
F. Strangborn
84'
K. Okafor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Järfälla 2–4 Dalkurd FF

Dalkurd FF beat Järfälla 4-2 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on August 11, 2024.

Goals: J. Hedivi (23'), L. M. Gasser (27'), F. Strangborn (36', 40', 53'), K. Okafor (84').

The match was played at Järfällavallen in Järfälla.