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Jaraíz vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Jaraíz
Jaraíz
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 20Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Jaraíz62%
×Draw22%
RCP Valverdeño16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraíz
1.86
RCP Valverdeño
0.82

Jaraíz creates 127% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 46 away

creates per match

Jaraíz
1.87
RCP Valverdeño
0.72

allows per match

Jaraíz
0.92
RCP Valverdeño
1.85

finishing

Jaraíz+0.00on par
RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraíz ↓

RCP Valverdeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jaraíz or draw
84%
Jaraíz or RCP Valverdeño
78%
Draw or RCP Valverdeño
38%

Winning margin

Jaraíz wins by 2+
36%
RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jaraíz 1+ goals
84%
Jaraíz 2+ goals
55%
Jaraíz 3+ goals
28%
RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
56%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
20%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jaraíz (draw refunded)
79%
RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraíz at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraíz attack 1.87 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Jaraíz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jaraíz scores more
62%
level
22%
RCP Valverdeño scores more
16%

Jaraíz at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jaraíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaraíz vs RCP Valverdeño

Jaraíz beat RCP Valverdeño 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera in Jaraíz de la Vera.