Jaraíz 0–3 Olivenza: Result & Stats

Jaraíz

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Olivenza

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 11Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Jaraíz55%

×Draw24%

Olivenza21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaraízExpected goals in this matchOlivenza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.96

Jaraíz

1.72

Olivenza

0.96

Jaraíz creates 79% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 93 away

1.87

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Jaraíz

1.87

Olivenza

1.00

allows per match

Jaraíz

0.92

Olivenza

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaraíz+0.00on par

Olivenza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraíz ↓

Olivenza →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jaraíz or draw

79%

Jaraíz or Olivenza

76%

Draw or Olivenza

45%

Winning margin

Jaraíz wins by 2+

31%

Olivenza wins by 2+

Team goals

Jaraíz 1+ goals

82%

Jaraíz 2+ goals

51%

Jaraíz 3+ goals

25%

Olivenza 1+ goals

62%

Olivenza 2+ goals

25%

Olivenza 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Jaraíz (draw refunded)

72%

Olivenza (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jaraíz at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Olivenza away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jaraíz attack 1.87 + Olivenza defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.72

Olivenza attack 1.00 + Jaraíz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jaraíz scores more

55%

level

24%

Olivenza scores more

21%

Jaraíz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jaraíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff