Jaraíz 0–2 Don Benito: Result & Stats

Jaraíz

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Don Benito

5/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 33Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jaraíz36%

×Draw27%

Don Benito37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaraízExpected goals in this matchDon Benito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.28

Jaraíz

1.25

Don Benito

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

1.87

creates per match

1.65

0.92

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Jaraíz

1.87

Don Benito

1.65

allows per match

Jaraíz

0.92

Don Benito

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaraíz+0.00on par

Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraíz ↓

Don Benito →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jaraíz or draw

63%

Jaraíz or Don Benito

73%

Draw or Don Benito

64%

Winning margin

Jaraíz wins by 2+

16%

Don Benito wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Jaraíz 1+ goals

71%

Jaraíz 2+ goals

36%

Jaraíz 3+ goals

13%

Don Benito 1+ goals

72%

Don Benito 2+ goals

37%

Don Benito 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jaraíz (draw refunded)

49%

Don Benito (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jaraíz at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Don Benito away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jaraíz attack 1.87 + Don Benito defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.25

Don Benito attack 1.65 + Jaraíz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jaraíz scores more

36%

level

27%

Don Benito scores more

37%

Don Benito at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff