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Jaraíz vs Don Álvaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Jaraíz
Jaraíz
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
10/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 4Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Jaraíz62%
×Draw22%
Don Álvaro16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraíz
1.88
Don Álvaro
0.82

Jaraíz creates 129% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 47 away

creates per match

Jaraíz
1.87
Don Álvaro
0.72

allows per match

Jaraíz
0.92
Don Álvaro
1.89

finishing

Jaraíz+0.00on par
Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraíz ↓

Don Álvaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jaraíz or draw
84%
Jaraíz or Don Álvaro
78%
Draw or Don Álvaro
38%

Winning margin

Jaraíz wins by 2+
37%
Don Álvaro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jaraíz 1+ goals
85%
Jaraíz 2+ goals
56%
Jaraíz 3+ goals
29%
Don Álvaro 1+ goals
56%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
20%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jaraíz (draw refunded)
80%
Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraíz at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraíz attack 1.87 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.88

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Jaraíz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jaraíz scores more
62%
level
22%
Don Álvaro scores more
16%

Jaraíz at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jaraíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaraíz vs Don Álvaro

Jaraíz beat Don Álvaro 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera in Jaraíz de la Vera.