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Jaraíz vs Castuera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Jaraíz
Jaraíz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Castuera
Castuera
4/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 31Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jaraíz57%
×Draw24%
Castuera19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraíz
1.73
Castuera
0.90

Jaraíz creates 92% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Jaraíz
1.87
Castuera
0.88

allows per match

Jaraíz
0.92
Castuera
1.59

finishing

Jaraíz+0.00on par
Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraíz ↓

Castuera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jaraíz or draw
81%
Jaraíz or Castuera
76%
Draw or Castuera
43%

Winning margin

Jaraíz wins by 2+
32%
Castuera wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jaraíz 1+ goals
82%
Jaraíz 2+ goals
52%
Jaraíz 3+ goals
25%
Castuera 1+ goals
59%
Castuera 2+ goals
23%
Castuera 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jaraíz (draw refunded)
75%
Castuera (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraíz at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraíz attack 1.87 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.73

Castuera attack 0.88 + Jaraíz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jaraíz scores more
57%
level
24%
Castuera scores more
19%

Jaraíz at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jaraíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Jaraíz 2–1 Castuera

Jaraíz beat Castuera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera in Jaraíz de la Vera.