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Jarabacoa vs San Cristóbal — Liga Mayor 2020

Jarabacoa
Jarabacoa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
J. Perez 68' (pen)
Bruno 45+3'
B. Castillo 4' (OG)
4/2/2023Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 2Estadio Junior Mejía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jarabacoa59%
×Draw22%
San Cristóbal19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarabacoa
1.98
San Cristóbal
1.04

Jarabacoa creates 90% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 34 away

creates per match

Jarabacoa
1.20
San Cristóbal
0.56

allows per match

Jarabacoa
1.53
San Cristóbal
2.76

finishing

Jarabacoa+0.00on par
San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarabacoa ↓

San Cristóbal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jarabacoa or draw
81%
Jarabacoa or San Cristóbal
78%
Draw or San Cristóbal
41%

Winning margin

Jarabacoa wins by 2+
35%
San Cristóbal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jarabacoa 1+ goals
86%
Jarabacoa 2+ goals
59%
Jarabacoa 3+ goals
31%
San Cristóbal 1+ goals
65%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
28%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jarabacoa (draw refunded)
75%
San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarabacoa at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarabacoa attack 1.20 + San Cristóbal defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.98

San Cristóbal attack 0.56 + Jarabacoa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jarabacoa scores more
59%
level
22%
San Cristóbal scores more
19%

Jarabacoa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jarabacoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
B. CastilloOwn goal
45+3'
Bruno
68'
J. PerezPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: Jarabacoa 3–0 San Cristóbal

Jarabacoa beat San Cristóbal 3-0 in Liga Mayor on April 2, 2023.

Goals: B. Castillo (4' o.g.), Bruno (45+3'), J. Perez (68' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Junior Mejía in Jarabacoa.