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Jarabacoa vs San Cristóbal — Liga Mayor 2020

Jarabacoa
Jarabacoa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
5/15/2022Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 9Estadio Junior Mejía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Jarabacoa42%
×Draw24%
San Cristóbal34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarabacoa
1.60
San Cristóbal
1.43

Jarabacoa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 12 away

creates per match

Jarabacoa
1.20
San Cristóbal
1.33

allows per match

Jarabacoa
1.53
San Cristóbal
2.00

finishing

Jarabacoa+0.00on par
San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarabacoa ↓

San Cristóbal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jarabacoa or draw
66%
Jarabacoa or San Cristóbal
76%
Draw or San Cristóbal
58%

Winning margin

Jarabacoa wins by 2+
21%
San Cristóbal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jarabacoa 1+ goals
80%
Jarabacoa 2+ goals
47%
Jarabacoa 3+ goals
22%
San Cristóbal 1+ goals
76%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
42%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jarabacoa (draw refunded)
55%
San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarabacoa at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarabacoa attack 1.20 + San Cristóbal defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

San Cristóbal attack 1.33 + Jarabacoa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jarabacoa scores more
42%
level
24%
San Cristóbal scores more
34%

Jarabacoa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jarabacoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jarabacoa vs San Cristóbal

Jarabacoa beat San Cristóbal 4-0 in Liga Mayor on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Junior Mejía in Jarabacoa.