Jarabacoa 0–0 Salcedo: Result & Stats | Liga Mayor

Jarabacoa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Salcedo

11/8/2025

Liga Mayor · Round 22Estadio Junior Mejía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jarabacoa31%

×Draw23%

Salcedo45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JarabacoaExpected goals in this matchSalcedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.73

Jarabacoa

1.40

Salcedo

1.73

Salcedo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 17 away

1.20

creates per match

1.94

1.53

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Jarabacoa

1.20

Salcedo

1.94

allows per match

Jarabacoa

1.53

Salcedo

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jarabacoa+0.00on par

Salcedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarabacoa ↓

Salcedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jarabacoa or draw

55%

Jarabacoa or Salcedo

77%

Draw or Salcedo

69%

Winning margin

Jarabacoa wins by 2+

14%

Salcedo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Jarabacoa 1+ goals

75%

Jarabacoa 2+ goals

41%

Jarabacoa 3+ goals

17%

Salcedo 1+ goals

82%

Salcedo 2+ goals

52%

Salcedo 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Jarabacoa (draw refunded)

41%

Salcedo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarabacoa at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Salcedo away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarabacoa attack 1.20 + Salcedo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Salcedo attack 1.94 + Jarabacoa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jarabacoa scores more

31%

level

23%

Salcedo scores more

45%

Salcedo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salcedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff