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Jarabacoa vs Atlético Pantoja — Liga Mayor 2020

Jarabacoa
Jarabacoa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Pantoja
Atlético Pantoja
5/29/2022Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 11Estadio Junior Mejía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jarabacoa30%
×Draw24%
Atlético Pantoja46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarabacoa
1.26
Atlético Pantoja
1.63

Atlético Pantoja creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 79 away

creates per match

Jarabacoa
1.20
Atlético Pantoja
1.72

allows per match

Jarabacoa
1.53
Atlético Pantoja
1.32

finishing

Jarabacoa+0.00on par
Atlético Pantoja+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarabacoa ↓

Atlético Pantoja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jarabacoa or draw
54%
Jarabacoa or Atlético Pantoja
76%
Draw or Atlético Pantoja
70%

Winning margin

Jarabacoa wins by 2+
12%
Atlético Pantoja wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Jarabacoa 1+ goals
72%
Jarabacoa 2+ goals
36%
Jarabacoa 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Pantoja 1+ goals
80%
Atlético Pantoja 2+ goals
48%
Atlético Pantoja 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jarabacoa (draw refunded)
39%
Atlético Pantoja (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarabacoa at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Atlético Pantoja away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarabacoa attack 1.20 + Atlético Pantoja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Atlético Pantoja attack 1.72 + Jarabacoa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jarabacoa scores more
30%
level
24%
Atlético Pantoja scores more
46%

Atlético Pantoja at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Pantoja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jarabacoa vs Atlético Pantoja

Jarabacoa beat Atlético Pantoja 2-1 in Liga Mayor on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Junior Mejía in Jarabacoa.