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Atlético Pantoja vs Jarabacoa — Liga Mayor 2020

Atlético Pantoja
Atlético Pantoja
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Jarabacoa
Jarabacoa
Unknown 90+4'
E. Perez 87' (pen)
D. Flores 48'
6/3/2023Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 6Estadio Panamericano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Atlético Pantoja52%
×Draw26%
Jarabacoa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pantoja
1.55
Jarabacoa
0.92

Atlético Pantoja creates 68% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 48 away

creates per match

Atlético Pantoja
1.64
Jarabacoa
0.90

allows per match

Atlético Pantoja
0.94
Jarabacoa
1.46

finishing

Atlético Pantoja+0.00on par
Jarabacoa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pantoja ↓

Jarabacoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Pantoja or draw
78%
Atlético Pantoja or Jarabacoa
74%
Draw or Jarabacoa
48%

Winning margin

Atlético Pantoja wins by 2+
27%
Jarabacoa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Pantoja 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Pantoja 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Pantoja 3+ goals
20%
Jarabacoa 1+ goals
60%
Jarabacoa 2+ goals
23%
Jarabacoa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pantoja (draw refunded)
70%
Jarabacoa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pantoja at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 80 matches

Jarabacoa away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pantoja attack 1.64 + Jarabacoa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Jarabacoa attack 0.90 + Atlético Pantoja defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Pantoja scores more
52%
level
26%
Jarabacoa scores more
22%

Atlético Pantoja at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Pantoja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
M. Viloria
23'
R. Vasquez
48'
D. Flores
51'
F. Herard
85'
O. Marte
87'
E. PerezPenalty
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Pantoja vs Jarabacoa

Jarabacoa beat Atlético Pantoja 3-0 in Liga Mayor on June 3, 2023.

Goals: D. Flores (48'), E. Perez (87' pen), ? (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Panamericano in San Cristóbal.