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Jarabacoa vs Atlántico — Liga Mayor 2020

Jarabacoa
Jarabacoa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlántico
Atlántico
10/4/2025Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 14Estadio Junior Mejía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jarabacoa37%
×Draw26%
Atlántico37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarabacoa
1.34
Atlántico
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 50 away

creates per match

Jarabacoa
1.20
Atlántico
1.18

allows per match

Jarabacoa
1.53
Atlántico
1.48

finishing

Jarabacoa+0.00on par
Atlántico+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarabacoa ↓

Atlántico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jarabacoa or draw
63%
Jarabacoa or Atlántico
74%
Draw or Atlántico
63%

Winning margin

Jarabacoa wins by 2+
17%
Atlántico wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jarabacoa 1+ goals
74%
Jarabacoa 2+ goals
39%
Jarabacoa 3+ goals
15%
Atlántico 1+ goals
74%
Atlántico 2+ goals
39%
Atlántico 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jarabacoa (draw refunded)
50%
Atlántico (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarabacoa at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Atlántico away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.48 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarabacoa attack 1.20 + Atlántico defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atlántico attack 1.18 + Jarabacoa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jarabacoa scores more
37%
level
26%
Atlántico scores more
37%

Jarabacoa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jarabacoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jarabacoa vs Atlántico

Jarabacoa and Atlántico drew 2-2 in Liga Mayor on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Junior Mejía in Jarabacoa.