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Jaraaf vs Stade de Mbour — Ligue 1 2019

Jaraaf
Jaraaf
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stade de Mbour
Stade de Mbour
8/6/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade Iba-Mar-Diop

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Jaraaf41%
×Draw35%
Stade de Mbour24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraaf
0.95
Stade de Mbour
0.64

Jaraaf creates 48% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 60 away

creates per match

Jaraaf
0.95
Stade de Mbour
0.70

allows per match

Jaraaf
0.57
Stade de Mbour
0.95

finishing

Jaraaf+0.00on par
Stade de Mbour+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraaf ↓

Stade de Mbour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Jaraaf or draw
76%
Jaraaf or Stade de Mbour
65%
Draw or Stade de Mbour
59%

Winning margin

Jaraaf wins by 2+
16%
Stade de Mbour wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jaraaf 1+ goals
61%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
25%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
7%
Stade de Mbour 1+ goals
47%
Stade de Mbour 2+ goals
14%
Stade de Mbour 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jaraaf (draw refunded)
64%
Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraaf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Stade de Mbour away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraaf attack 0.95 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Stade de Mbour attack 0.70 + Jaraaf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jaraaf scores more
41%
level
35%
Stade de Mbour scores more
24%

Jaraaf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Jaraaf 1–1 Stade de Mbour

Jaraaf and Stade de Mbour drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Iba-Mar-Diop in Dakar.