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Jaraaf vs La Linguère — Ligue 1 2019

Jaraaf
Jaraaf
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
La Linguère
La Linguère
S. Cisse 87'
I. Kane 42'
A. Diouf 37'
6/8/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade de Ngor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Jaraaf43%
×Draw36%
La Linguère22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraaf
0.93
La Linguère
0.57

Jaraaf creates 63% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 69 away

creates per match

Jaraaf
0.95
La Linguère
0.58

allows per match

Jaraaf
0.57
La Linguère
0.91

finishing

Jaraaf+0.00on par
La Linguère+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraaf ↓

La Linguère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Jaraaf or draw
78%
Jaraaf or La Linguère
64%
Draw or La Linguère
57%

Winning margin

Jaraaf wins by 2+
16%
La Linguère wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jaraaf 1+ goals
61%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
24%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
7%
La Linguère 1+ goals
43%
La Linguère 2+ goals
11%
La Linguère 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jaraaf (draw refunded)
66%
La Linguère (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraaf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

La Linguère away — creates 0.58, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraaf attack 0.95 + La Linguère defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

La Linguère attack 0.58 + Jaraaf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jaraaf scores more
43%
level
36%
La Linguère scores more
22%

Jaraaf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
A. Diouf
42'
I. Kane
87'
S. Cisse

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaraaf vs La Linguère

Jaraaf beat La Linguère 2-1 in Ligue 1 on June 8, 2024.

Goals: A. Diouf (37'), I. Kane (42'), S. Cisse (87').

The match was played at Stade de Ngor in Dakar.