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Jaraaf vs DSC — Ligue 1 2019

Jaraaf
Jaraaf
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
DSC
DSC
10/27/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade de Ngor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Jaraaf41%
×Draw35%
DSC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraaf
0.93
DSC
0.62

Jaraaf creates 50% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 89 away

creates per match

Jaraaf
0.95
DSC
0.67

allows per match

Jaraaf
0.57
DSC
0.91

finishing

Jaraaf+0.00on par
DSC+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraaf ↓

DSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Jaraaf or draw
77%
Jaraaf or DSC
65%
Draw or DSC
59%

Winning margin

Jaraaf wins by 2+
15%
DSC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jaraaf 1+ goals
61%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
24%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
7%
DSC 1+ goals
46%
DSC 2+ goals
13%
DSC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jaraaf (draw refunded)
64%
DSC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraaf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

DSC away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraaf attack 0.95 + DSC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

DSC attack 0.67 + Jaraaf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jaraaf scores more
41%
level
35%
DSC scores more
23%

Jaraaf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jaraaf 1 – 1 DSC

Jaraaf and DSC drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Ngor in Dakar.