Jaraaf 1–0 Douanes: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Jaraaf

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Douanes

4/16/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Iba-Mar-Diop

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jaraaf42%

×Draw34%

Douanes24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaraafExpected goals in this matchDouanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.67

Jaraaf

0.98

Douanes

0.67

Jaraaf creates 46% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 45 away

0.95

creates per match

0.76

0.57

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Jaraaf

0.95

Douanes

0.76

allows per match

Jaraaf

0.57

Douanes

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaraaf+0.00on par

Douanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraaf ↓

Douanes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Jaraaf or draw

76%

Jaraaf or Douanes

66%

Draw or Douanes

58%

Winning margin

Jaraaf wins by 2+

16%

Douanes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jaraaf 1+ goals

62%

Jaraaf 2+ goals

26%

Jaraaf 3+ goals

8%

Douanes 1+ goals

49%

Douanes 2+ goals

15%

Douanes 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Jaraaf (draw refunded)

63%

Douanes (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraaf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Douanes away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraaf attack 0.95 + Douanes defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Douanes attack 0.76 + Jaraaf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jaraaf scores more

42%

level

34%

Douanes scores more

24%

Jaraaf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff