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Jaraaf vs Casa Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Jaraaf
Jaraaf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Casa Sport
Casa Sport
1/29/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Municipal de Yoff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Jaraaf41%
×Draw34%
Casa Sport25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraaf
0.97
Casa Sport
0.69

Jaraaf creates 41% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

creates per match

Jaraaf
0.95
Casa Sport
0.81

allows per match

Jaraaf
0.57
Casa Sport
0.99

finishing

Jaraaf+0.00on par
Casa Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraaf ↓

Casa Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Jaraaf or draw
75%
Jaraaf or Casa Sport
66%
Draw or Casa Sport
59%

Winning margin

Jaraaf wins by 2+
16%
Casa Sport wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jaraaf 1+ goals
62%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
25%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
7%
Casa Sport 1+ goals
50%
Casa Sport 2+ goals
15%
Casa Sport 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jaraaf (draw refunded)
62%
Casa Sport (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraaf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Casa Sport away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraaf attack 0.95 + Casa Sport defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Casa Sport attack 0.81 + Jaraaf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jaraaf scores more
41%
level
34%
Casa Sport scores more
25%

Jaraaf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Jaraaf 1–0 Casa Sport

Jaraaf beat Casa Sport 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Yoff in Dakar.