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Jaraaf vs ASEC Ndiambour — Ligue 1 2019

Jaraaf
Jaraaf
FT
1 – 0
ASEC Ndiambour
ASEC Ndiambour
2/6/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade Amadou Barry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Jaraaf52%
×Draw32%
ASEC Ndiambour16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraaf
1.15
ASEC Ndiambour
0.51

Jaraaf creates 125% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 32 away

creates per match

Jaraaf
0.95
ASEC Ndiambour
0.44

allows per match

Jaraaf
0.57
ASEC Ndiambour
1.34

finishing

Jaraaf+0.00on par
ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraaf ↓

ASEC Ndiambour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–110%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Jaraaf or draw
84%
Jaraaf or ASEC Ndiambour
68%
Draw or ASEC Ndiambour
48%

Winning margin

Jaraaf wins by 2+
23%
ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jaraaf 1+ goals
68%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
32%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
11%
ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals
40%
ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals
9%
ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jaraaf (draw refunded)
76%
ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraaf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

ASEC Ndiambour away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraaf attack 0.95 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.44 + Jaraaf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jaraaf scores more
52%
level
32%
ASEC Ndiambour scores more
16%

Jaraaf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaraaf vs ASEC Ndiambour

Jaraaf beat ASEC Ndiambour 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Amadou Barry in Guédiawaye.