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JäPS vs VJS — Friendlies Clubs 2026

JäPS
JäPS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
VJS
VJS
D. Hvidberg 77'
A. Nyholm 49'
3/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

JäPS29%
×Draw29%
VJS43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JäPS
0.97
VJS
1.25

VJS creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

JäPS
1.70
VJS
1.50

allows per match

JäPS
1.00
VJS
0.25

finishing

JäPS+0.00on par
VJS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 62Over: 3862%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS ↓

VJS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

JäPS or draw
57%
JäPS or VJS
71%
Draw or VJS
71%

Winning margin

JäPS wins by 2+
10%
VJS wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

JäPS 1+ goals
62%
JäPS 2+ goals
25%
JäPS 3+ goals
7%
VJS 1+ goals
71%
VJS 2+ goals
36%
VJS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

JäPS (draw refunded)
40%
VJS (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

VJS away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS attack 1.70 + VJS defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

VJS attack 1.50 + JäPS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

JäPS scores more
29%
level
29%
VJS scores more
43%

VJS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
A. Nyholm
77'
D. Hvidberg
JäPS
VJS
Teemu Kankkunen
Manager: Teemu Kankkunen
Tommi Ekmark
Manager: Tommi Ekmark

JäPS 0 – 2 VJS

VJS beat JäPS 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 24, 2026.

Goals: A. Nyholm (49'), D. Hvidberg (77').