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JäPS vs PIF — Ykkönen 2018

JäPS
JäPS
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
PIF
PIF
7/30/2022YkkönenYkkönen · Round 11Järvenpään keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

JäPS52%
×Draw23%
PIF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JäPS
1.89
PIF
1.25

JäPS creates 51% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

JäPS
1.48
PIF
1.07

allows per match

JäPS
1.44
PIF
2.29

finishing

JäPS+0.00on par
PIF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS ↓

PIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

JäPS or draw
75%
JäPS or PIF
77%
Draw or PIF
48%

Winning margin

JäPS wins by 2+
30%
PIF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

JäPS 1+ goals
85%
JäPS 2+ goals
56%
JäPS 3+ goals
29%
PIF 1+ goals
71%
PIF 2+ goals
36%
PIF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

JäPS (draw refunded)
67%
PIF (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

PIF away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS attack 1.48 + PIF defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.89

PIF attack 1.07 + JäPS defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

JäPS scores more
52%
level
23%
PIF scores more
25%

JäPS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: JäPS 4–1 PIF

JäPS beat PIF 4-1 in Ykkönen on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Järvenpään keskuskenttä in Järvenpää.