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JäPS vs AC Oulu — Suomen Cup 2018

JäPS
JäPS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
6/14/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 6th RoundJärvenpään keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JäPS32%
×Draw24%
AC Oulu44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JäPS
1.36
AC Oulu
1.64

AC Oulu creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

creates per match

JäPS
1.67
AC Oulu
2.27

allows per match

JäPS
1.00
AC Oulu
1.05

finishing

JäPS+0.00on par
AC Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS ↓

AC Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

JäPS or draw
56%
JäPS or AC Oulu
76%
Draw or AC Oulu
68%

Winning margin

JäPS wins by 2+
14%
AC Oulu wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

JäPS 1+ goals
74%
JäPS 2+ goals
39%
JäPS 3+ goals
16%
AC Oulu 1+ goals
81%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
49%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

JäPS (draw refunded)
42%
AC Oulu (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS attack 1.67 + AC Oulu defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.36

AC Oulu attack 2.27 + JäPS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

JäPS scores more
32%
level
24%
AC Oulu scores more
44%

AC Oulu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: JäPS 2–1 AC Oulu

JäPS beat AC Oulu 2-1 in Suomen Cup on June 14, 2022.

The match was played at Järvenpään keskuskenttä in Järvenpää.