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JäPS / United vs RiPS — Suomen Cup 2018

JäPS / United
JäPS / United
FT
0 – 4
RiPS
RiPS
3/8/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundJärvenpää Monitoimihalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JäPS / United3%
×Draw6%
RiPS91%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JäPS / United
0.73
RiPS
4.24

RiPS creates 481% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

JäPS / United
0.33
RiPS
3.14

allows per match

JäPS / United
5.33
RiPS
1.14

finishing

JäPS / United+0.00on par
RiPS+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS / United ↓

RiPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–27%
0–310%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (11%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

JäPS / United or draw
9%
JäPS / United or RiPS
94%
Draw or RiPS
97%

Winning margin

JäPS / United wins by 2+
1%
RiPS wins by 2+
79%

Team goals

JäPS / United 1+ goals
52%
JäPS / United 2+ goals
17%
JäPS / United 3+ goals
4%
RiPS 1+ goals
98%
RiPS 2+ goals
91%
RiPS 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

JäPS / United (draw refunded)
3%
RiPS (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS / United at home — creates 0.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

RiPS away — creates 3.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS / United attack 0.33 + RiPS defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.73

RiPS attack 3.14 + JäPS / United defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

JäPS / United scores more
3%
level
6%
RiPS scores more
91%

RiPS at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "RiPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: JäPS / United 0–4 RiPS

RiPS beat JäPS / United 4-0 in Suomen Cup on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Järvenpää Monitoimihalli in Järvenpää.