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JaPS O35 vs Union Plaani — Suomen Cup 2018

JaPS O35
JaPS O35
FT
2 – 0
Union Plaani
Union Plaani
4/2/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundMukkulan halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

JaPS O3532%
×Draw18%
Union Plaani51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JaPS O35
2.50
Union Plaani
3.13

Union Plaani creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

JaPS O35
3.00
Union Plaani
3.00

allows per match

JaPS O35
3.25
Union Plaani
2.00

finishing

JaPS O35+0.00on par
Union Plaani+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JaPS O35 ↓

Union Plaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

JaPS O35 or draw
49%
JaPS O35 or Union Plaani
82%
Draw or Union Plaani
68%

Winning margin

JaPS O35 wins by 2+
18%
Union Plaani wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

JaPS O35 1+ goals
92%
JaPS O35 2+ goals
71%
JaPS O35 3+ goals
45%
Union Plaani 1+ goals
95%
Union Plaani 2+ goals
81%
Union Plaani 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

JaPS O35 (draw refunded)
39%
Union Plaani (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JaPS O35 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Union Plaani away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JaPS O35 attack 3.00 + Union Plaani defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Union Plaani attack 3.00 + JaPS O35 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

JaPS O35 scores more
32%
level
18%
Union Plaani scores more
51%

Union Plaani at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union Plaani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JaPS O35 vs Union Plaani

JaPS O35 beat Union Plaani 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Mukkulan halli in Lahti.