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JaPS O35 vs Reipas — Suomen Cup 2018

JaPS O35
JaPS O35
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Reipas
Reipas
5/21/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundLahden Kisapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JaPS O3516%
×Draw14%
Reipas70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JaPS O35
1.67
Reipas
3.46

Reipas creates 107% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

JaPS O35
3.00
Reipas
3.67

allows per match

JaPS O35
3.25
Reipas
0.33

finishing

JaPS O35+0.00on par
Reipas+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JaPS O35 ↓

Reipas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

JaPS O35 or draw
30%
JaPS O35 or Reipas
86%
Draw or Reipas
84%

Winning margin

JaPS O35 wins by 2+
7%
Reipas wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

JaPS O35 1+ goals
81%
JaPS O35 2+ goals
50%
JaPS O35 3+ goals
23%
Reipas 1+ goals
97%
Reipas 2+ goals
85%
Reipas 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

JaPS O35 (draw refunded)
18%
Reipas (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JaPS O35 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Reipas away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JaPS O35 attack 3.00 + Reipas defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Reipas attack 3.67 + JaPS O35 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

JaPS O35 scores more
16%
level
14%
Reipas scores more
70%

Reipas at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Reipas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JaPS O35 vs Reipas

Reipas beat JaPS O35 5-0 in Suomen Cup on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Lahden Kisapuisto in Lahti.