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JaPS O35 vs KJP — Suomen Cup 2018

JaPS O35
JaPS O35
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KJP
KJP
5/7/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundLahden Kisapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

JaPS O3522%
×Draw16%
KJP62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JaPS O35
2.06
KJP
3.44

KJP creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

JaPS O35
3.00
KJP
3.63

allows per match

JaPS O35
3.25
KJP
1.13

finishing

JaPS O35+0.00on par
KJP+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JaPS O35 ↓

KJP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
78%22%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

JaPS O35 or draw
38%
JaPS O35 or KJP
84%
Draw or KJP
78%

Winning margin

JaPS O35 wins by 2+
11%
KJP wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

JaPS O35 1+ goals
87%
JaPS O35 2+ goals
61%
JaPS O35 3+ goals
34%
KJP 1+ goals
97%
KJP 2+ goals
85%
KJP 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

JaPS O35 (draw refunded)
26%
KJP (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JaPS O35 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

KJP away — creates 3.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JaPS O35 attack 3.00 + KJP defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

KJP attack 3.63 + JaPS O35 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

JaPS O35 scores more
22%
level
16%
KJP scores more
62%

KJP at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "KJP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JaPS O35 0 – 0 KJP

JaPS O35 and KJP drew 0-0 in Suomen Cup on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Lahden Kisapuisto in Lahti.