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JäPS III vs Lahti Akatemia — Suomen Cup 2018

JäPS III
JäPS III
FT
1 – 3
Lahti Akatemia
Lahti Akatemia
3/23/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundJärvenpää Monitoimihalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JäPS III5%
×Draw9%
Lahti Akatemia86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JäPS III
0.83
Lahti Akatemia
3.67

Lahti Akatemia creates 342% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

JäPS III
0.67
Lahti Akatemia
4.00

allows per match

JäPS III
3.33
Lahti Akatemia
1.00

finishing

JäPS III+0.00on par
Lahti Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS III ↓

Lahti Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

JäPS III or draw
14%
JäPS III or Lahti Akatemia
91%
Draw or Lahti Akatemia
95%

Winning margin

JäPS III wins by 2+
1%
Lahti Akatemia wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

JäPS III 1+ goals
56%
JäPS III 2+ goals
20%
JäPS III 3+ goals
5%
Lahti Akatemia 1+ goals
97%
Lahti Akatemia 2+ goals
87%
Lahti Akatemia 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

JäPS III (draw refunded)
5%
Lahti Akatemia (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS III at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Lahti Akatemia away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS III attack 0.67 + Lahti Akatemia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Lahti Akatemia attack 4.00 + JäPS III defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

JäPS III scores more
5%
level
9%
Lahti Akatemia scores more
86%

Lahti Akatemia at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Lahti Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JäPS III vs Lahti Akatemia

Lahti Akatemia beat JäPS III 3-1 in Suomen Cup on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Järvenpää Monitoimihalli in Järvenpää.