JäPS II 0–1 Reipas: Result & Stats

JäPS II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Reipas

7/7/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 13Järvenpää TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

JäPS II39%

×Draw23%

Reipas37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JäPS IIExpected goals in this matchReipas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.60

JäPS II

1.64

Reipas

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 68 away

1.78

creates per match

1.87

1.33

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

JäPS II

1.78

Reipas

1.87

allows per match

JäPS II

1.33

Reipas

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JäPS II+0.00on par

Reipas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS II ↓

Reipas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

JäPS II or draw

63%

JäPS II or Reipas

77%

Draw or Reipas

61%

Winning margin

JäPS II wins by 2+

20%

Reipas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

JäPS II 1+ goals

81%

JäPS II 2+ goals

49%

JäPS II 3+ goals

23%

Reipas 1+ goals

80%

Reipas 2+ goals

47%

Reipas 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

JäPS II (draw refunded)

51%

Reipas (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Reipas away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS II attack 1.78 + Reipas defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.64

Reipas attack 1.87 + JäPS II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

JäPS II scores more

39%

level

23%

Reipas scores more

37%

JäPS II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "JäPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff