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JäPS II vs PPJ — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

JäPS II
JäPS II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PPJ
PPJ
5/13/2024Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 5Lukion tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

JäPS II40%
×Draw24%
PPJ36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JäPS II
1.64
PPJ
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 38 away

creates per match

JäPS II
1.78
PPJ
1.76

allows per match

JäPS II
1.33
PPJ
1.50

finishing

JäPS II+0.00on par
PPJ+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS II ↓

PPJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

JäPS II or draw
64%
JäPS II or PPJ
76%
Draw or PPJ
60%

Winning margin

JäPS II wins by 2+
20%
PPJ wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

JäPS II 1+ goals
81%
JäPS II 2+ goals
49%
JäPS II 3+ goals
23%
PPJ 1+ goals
79%
PPJ 2+ goals
45%
PPJ 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

JäPS II (draw refunded)
53%
PPJ (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

PPJ away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS II attack 1.78 + PPJ defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

PPJ attack 1.76 + JäPS II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

JäPS II scores more
40%
level
24%
PPJ scores more
36%

JäPS II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "JäPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JäPS II 1 – 0 PPJ

JäPS II beat PPJ 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 13, 2024.

The match was played at Lukion tekonurmi in Järvenpää.