JäPS / Akatemia 0–7 VJS: Result & Stats

JäPS / Akatemia

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

VJS

4/14/2026

Suomen Cup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

JäPS / Akatemia13%

×Draw14%

VJS73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JäPS / AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchVJS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

3.22

JäPS / Akatemia

1.31

VJS

3.22

VJS creates 146% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

3.44

3.00

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

JäPS / Akatemia

1.50

VJS

3.44

allows per match

JäPS / Akatemia

3.00

VJS

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JäPS / Akatemia+0.00on par

VJS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS / Akatemia ↓

VJS →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

JäPS / Akatemia or draw

27%

JäPS / Akatemia or VJS

86%

Draw or VJS

87%

Winning margin

JäPS / Akatemia wins by 2+

VJS wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

JäPS / Akatemia 1+ goals

73%

JäPS / Akatemia 2+ goals

38%

JäPS / Akatemia 3+ goals

14%

VJS 1+ goals

96%

VJS 2+ goals

82%

VJS 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

JäPS / Akatemia (draw refunded)

15%

VJS (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

JäPS / Akatemia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

VJS away — creates 3.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

JäPS / Akatemia attack 1.50 + VJS defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

VJS attack 3.44 + JäPS / Akatemia defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

JäPS / Akatemia scores more

13%

level

14%

VJS scores more

73%

VJS at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff