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Japan W vs Norway W — World Cup - Women 2019

Japan W
Japan Wadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Norway W
Norway W
H. Miyazawa 81'
R. Shimizu 50'
I. Engen 15' (OG)
G. Reiten 20'
8/5/2023World Cup - WomenWorld Cup - Women · Round of 16Wellington Regional Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Japan W61%
×Draw22%
Norway W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Japan W
1.83
Norway W
0.83

Japan W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Japan W
2.00
Norway W
0.67

allows per match

Japan W
1.00
Norway W
1.67

finishing

Japan W+0.00on par
Norway W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Japan W ↓

Norway W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Japan W or draw
83%
Japan W or Norway W
78%
Draw or Norway W
39%

Winning margin

Japan W wins by 2+
36%
Norway W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Japan W 1+ goals
84%
Japan W 2+ goals
54%
Japan W 3+ goals
28%
Norway W 1+ goals
56%
Norway W 2+ goals
20%
Norway W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Japan W (draw refunded)
79%
Norway W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Japan W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Norway W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Japan W attack 2.00 + Norway W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Norway W attack 0.67 + Japan W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Japan W scores more
61%
level
22%
Norway W scores more
17%

Japan W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Japan W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
H. MiyazawaJapan WJapan W · F
8.2

Match Events

15'
I. EngenOwn goal
20'
G. Reiten↳ V. Bøe Risa
50'
R. Shimizu
63'
K. Sævik← E. Haavi
63'
F. Maanum← V. Bøe Risa
72'
R. Ueki← Minami Tanaka
74'
A. Hegerberg← T. Hansen
81'
H. Miyazawa↳ A. Fujino
88'
S. Hørte← T. Bjelde

Possession

60%Japan

Shots

16Japan

Pass accuracy

54%Japan

Statistics

JapanNorway
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots8
6Corners1
6Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots8
4On Target3
6Off Target4
6Blocked1
8Inside Box6
8Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
622Total Passes406
526Accurate Passes298
85%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls8
2Offsides0

World Cup - Women: Japan W 3–1 Norway W

Japan W beat Norway W 3-1 in World Cup - Women on August 5, 2023.

Goals: I. Engen (15' o.g.), G. Reiten (20'), R. Shimizu (50'), H. Miyazawa (81').

Japan W controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Wellington Regional Stadium in Wellington.