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Japan vs Bolivia — Friendlies 2026

Japan
Japan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bolivia
Bolivia
Keito Nakamura 78'
Shuto Machino 72'
Daichi Kamada 4'
11/18/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1National Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Japan64%
×Draw22%
Bolivia14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Japan
1.85
Bolivia
0.73

Japan creates 153% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

creates per match

Japan
1.92
Bolivia
0.59

allows per match

Japan
0.87
Bolivia
1.79

finishing

Japan+0.00on par
Bolivia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Japan ↓

Bolivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Japan or draw
86%
Japan or Bolivia
78%
Draw or Bolivia
36%

Winning margin

Japan wins by 2+
38%
Bolivia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Japan 1+ goals
84%
Japan 2+ goals
55%
Japan 3+ goals
28%
Bolivia 1+ goals
52%
Bolivia 2+ goals
17%
Bolivia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Japan (draw refunded)
82%
Bolivia (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Japan at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.87 · 38 matches

Bolivia away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Japan attack 1.92 + Bolivia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.85

Bolivia attack 0.59 + Japan defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Japan scores more
64%
level
22%
Bolivia scores more
14%

Japan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Japan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Keito NakamuraJapanJapan · F
8.3

Match Events

4'
Daichi Kamada↳ Takefusa Kubo
25'
Yukinari Sugawara
34'
Fernando Nava
46'
Ritsu Doan← Yukinari Sugawara
46'
Robson Matheus← Ervin Vaca
55'
Ko Itakura
67'
Shuto Machino← Takefusa Kubo
67'
Ayase Ueda← Koki Ogawa
67'
Keito Nakamura← Takumi Minamino
72'
Shuto Machino↳ Keito Nakamura
77'
Joel Chima Fujita← Daichi Kamada
78'
Keito Nakamura↳ Ayase Ueda
78'
Moisés Villarroel← Gabriel Villamil
82'
Keisuke Goto← Daizen Maeda

Possession

53%Japan

Shots

8Japan

Pass accuracy

51%Japan

Statistics

JapanBolivia
Overview
53%Possession47%
8Total Shots12
1Corners2
8Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots12
6On Target0
2Off Target7
0Blocked5
7Inside Box4
1Outside Box8
Passing
53%Possession47%
340Total Passes299
285Accurate Passes245
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Japan vs Bolivia

Japan beat Bolivia 3-0 in Friendlies on November 18, 2025.

Goals: Daichi Kamada (4'), Shuto Machino (72'), Keito Nakamura (78').

Japan controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at National Olympic Stadium in Tokyo.