Japan U19 1–0 Panama U23: Result & Stats

Japan U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Panama U23

6/12/2024

Tournoi Maurice Revello · Group Stage - 5Stade Marcel Roustan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Japan U1929%

×Draw25%

Panama U2346%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Japan U19Expected goals in this matchPanama U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.57

Japan U19

1.21

Panama U23

1.57

Panama U23 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.43

creates per match

2.00

1.14

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Japan U19

1.43

Panama U23

2.00

allows per match

Japan U19

1.14

Panama U23

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Japan U19+0.00on par

Panama U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Japan U19 ↓

Panama U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Japan U19 or draw

54%

Japan U19 or Panama U23

75%

Draw or Panama U23

71%

Winning margin

Japan U19 wins by 2+

12%

Panama U23 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Japan U19 1+ goals

70%

Japan U19 2+ goals

34%

Japan U19 3+ goals

12%

Panama U23 1+ goals

79%

Panama U23 2+ goals

46%

Panama U23 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Japan U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Panama U23 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Japan U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Panama U23 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Japan U19 attack 1.43 + Panama U23 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Panama U23 attack 2.00 + Japan U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Japan U19 scores more

29%

level

25%

Panama U23 scores more

46%

Panama U23 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Panama U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff