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Japan U19 vs Indonesia U20 — Tournoi Maurice Revello 2022

Japan U19
Japan U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Indonesia U20
Indonesia U20
6/8/2024Tournoi Maurice RevelloTournoi Maurice Revello · Group Stage - 3Stade Parsemain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Japan U1960%
×Draw22%
Indonesia U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Japan U19
1.88
Indonesia U20
0.91

Japan U19 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Japan U19
1.43
Indonesia U20
0.67

allows per match

Japan U19
1.14
Indonesia U20
2.33

finishing

Japan U19+0.00on par
Indonesia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Japan U19 ↓

Indonesia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Japan U19 or draw
82%
Japan U19 or Indonesia U20
78%
Draw or Indonesia U20
40%

Winning margin

Japan U19 wins by 2+
35%
Indonesia U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Japan U19 1+ goals
85%
Japan U19 2+ goals
56%
Japan U19 3+ goals
29%
Indonesia U20 1+ goals
60%
Indonesia U20 2+ goals
23%
Indonesia U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Japan U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Indonesia U20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Japan U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Indonesia U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Japan U19 attack 1.43 + Indonesia U20 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

Indonesia U20 attack 0.67 + Japan U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Japan U19 scores more
60%
level
22%
Indonesia U20 scores more
18%

Japan U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Japan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Japan U19 vs Indonesia U20

Japan U19 beat Indonesia U20 4-1 in Tournoi Maurice Revello on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Parsemain in Fos-sur-Mer.