Jäntevä Kotka 0–9 MP: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Jäntevä Kotka

0 – 9

HT: 0 – 5

4/9/2022

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundArto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jäntevä Kotka6%

×Draw9%

MP85%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jäntevä KotkaExpected goals in this matchMP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

4.07

Jäntevä Kotka

1.10

4.07

MP creates 270% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

0.67

creates per match

3.47

4.67

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Jäntevä Kotka

0.67

3.47

allows per match

Jäntevä Kotka

4.67

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jäntevä Kotka+0.00on par

MP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jäntevä Kotka ↓

MP →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–37%

0–47%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–12%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Jäntevä Kotka or draw

15%

Jäntevä Kotka or MP

91%

Draw or MP

94%

Winning margin

Jäntevä Kotka wins by 2+

MP wins by 2+

70%

Team goals

Jäntevä Kotka 1+ goals

67%

Jäntevä Kotka 2+ goals

30%

Jäntevä Kotka 3+ goals

10%

MP 1+ goals

98%

MP 2+ goals

90%

MP 3+ goals

74%

Draw no bet

Jäntevä Kotka (draw refunded)

MP (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jäntevä Kotka at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

MP away — creates 3.47, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jäntevä Kotka attack 0.67 + MP defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.10

MP attack 3.47 + Jäntevä Kotka defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 85%?"

Jäntevä Kotka scores more

level

MP scores more

85%

MP at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff