Jamshedpur 1–0 Mohammedan: Result & Stats

Jamshedpur

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mohammedan

M. Talal 9'

2/15/2026

Indian Super League · Round 1JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Jamshedpur70%

×Draw20%

Mohammedan10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JamshedpurExpected goals in this matchMohammedan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.53

Jamshedpur

1.88

Mohammedan

0.53

Jamshedpur creates 255% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.40

creates per match

0.55

0.50

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Jamshedpur

1.40

Mohammedan

0.55

allows per match

Jamshedpur

0.50

Mohammedan

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.00on par

Mohammedan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

Mohammedan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw

90%

Jamshedpur or Mohammedan

80%

Draw or Mohammedan

30%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+

43%

Mohammedan wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals

85%

Jamshedpur 2+ goals

56%

Jamshedpur 3+ goals

29%

Mohammedan 1+ goals

41%

Mohammedan 2+ goals

10%

Mohammedan 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)

88%

Mohammedan (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Mohammedan away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.40 + Mohammedan defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.88

Mohammedan attack 0.55 + Jamshedpur defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Jamshedpur scores more

70%

level

20%

Mohammedan scores more

10%

Jamshedpur at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Jamshedpur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Talal

Jamshedpur · M

8.7

Match Events

9'

M. Talal↳ P. Halder

55'

Lalngaihsaka← R. Mahitosh

58'

Ritwik Kumar Das

64'

V. Barretto← R. Das

69'

N. Stojanovic← R. Tachikawa

75'

F. Molla← Lalthankima

83'

I. Dewan← Lalremsanga

86'

Lalngaihsaka Lalnuntluanga

90+3'

R. Gabriel← M. K. Sanan

90+3'

L. Chawngthu← P. Halder

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JamshedpurMohammedan

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots4

1.35Expected Goals (xG)0.24

4Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots4

3On Target0

10Off Target2

1Blocked2

11Inside Box1

3Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

381Total Passes348

284Accurate Passes254

75%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0