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Jamshedpur vs Minerva Punjab — Indian Super League 2025

Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Minerva Punjab
Minerva Punjab
V. Barretto 78'
2/21/2026Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 2JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jamshedpur45%
×Draw28%
Minerva Punjab27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jamshedpur
1.34
Minerva Punjab
0.96

Jamshedpur creates 40% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Jamshedpur
1.55
Minerva Punjab
1.38

allows per match

Jamshedpur
0.55
Minerva Punjab
1.13

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.00on par
Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

Minerva Punjab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw
73%
Jamshedpur or Minerva Punjab
72%
Draw or Minerva Punjab
55%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+
21%
Minerva Punjab wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals
74%
Jamshedpur 2+ goals
39%
Jamshedpur 3+ goals
15%
Minerva Punjab 1+ goals
62%
Minerva Punjab 2+ goals
25%
Minerva Punjab 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)
63%
Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Minerva Punjab away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.55 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Minerva Punjab attack 1.38 + Jamshedpur defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jamshedpur scores more
45%
level
28%
Minerva Punjab scores more
27%

Jamshedpur at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jamshedpur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
V. BarrettoJamshedpurJamshedpur · F
7.7

Match Events

50'
Pronay Halder
60'
P. Rebello← M. Suhail F
60'
B. Osuji← S. Zeljkovic
67'
R. Tachikawa← N. Stojanovic
67'
V. Barretto← R. Das
67'
M. Kipgen← S. B. Singh
78'
V. Barretto
81'
Bijoy Varghese
85'
L. Augustine← R. Shabong
87'
Mark Zothanpuia
87'
S. Golui← M. Zothanpuia

Possession

46%Jamshedpur

Shots

4Jamshedpur

Pass accuracy

48%Jamshedpur

Statistics

JamshedpurMinerva
Overview
46%Possession54%
4Total Shots8
0.66Expected Goals (xG)0.50
4Corners5
14Fouls12
Shots
4Total Shots8
1On Target2
3Off Target3
0Blocked3
2Inside Box6
2Outside Box2
Passing
46%Possession54%
294Total Passes339
187Accurate Passes234
64%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
7Offsides3

Match Recap: Jamshedpur vs Minerva Punjab

Jamshedpur beat Minerva Punjab 1-0 in Indian Super League on February 21, 2026.

Goals: V. Barretto (78').

Minerva Punjab controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 4.

The match was played at JRD Tata Sports Complex in Jamshedpur.