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Jamshedpur vs Hyderabad — Indian Super League 2019

Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hyderabad
Hyderabad
10/5/2023Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 3JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Jamshedpur41%
×Draw26%
Hyderabad33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jamshedpur
1.43
Hyderabad
1.27

Jamshedpur creates 13% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 63 away

creates per match

Jamshedpur
1.40
Hyderabad
1.25

allows per match

Jamshedpur
1.30
Hyderabad
1.46

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.00on par
Hyderabad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

Hyderabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw
67%
Jamshedpur or Hyderabad
74%
Draw or Hyderabad
59%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+
19%
Hyderabad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals
76%
Jamshedpur 2+ goals
42%
Jamshedpur 3+ goals
17%
Hyderabad 1+ goals
72%
Hyderabad 2+ goals
36%
Hyderabad 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)
55%
Hyderabad (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 73 matches

Hyderabad away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.46 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.40 + Hyderabad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hyderabad attack 1.25 + Jamshedpur defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jamshedpur scores more
41%
level
26%
Hyderabad scores more
33%

Jamshedpur at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jamshedpur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jamshedpur vs Hyderabad

Jamshedpur beat Hyderabad 1-0 in Indian Super League on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at JRD Tata Sports Complex in Jamshedpur.