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Jamshedpur vs Chennaiyin — Indian Super League 2025

Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Chennaiyin
Chennaiyin
N. Stojanovic 78'
M. K. Sanan 58', 7'
R. Messi Bouli 27'
S. Prakadeswaran 69'
4/25/2026Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 10JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Jamshedpur65%
×Draw22%
Chennaiyin12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jamshedpur
1.76
Chennaiyin
0.61

Jamshedpur creates 189% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Jamshedpur
1.42
Chennaiyin
0.60

allows per match

Jamshedpur
0.63
Chennaiyin
2.10

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.00on par
Chennaiyin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

Chennaiyin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw
88%
Jamshedpur or Chennaiyin
78%
Draw or Chennaiyin
35%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+
38%
Chennaiyin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals
83%
Jamshedpur 2+ goals
52%
Jamshedpur 3+ goals
26%
Chennaiyin 1+ goals
46%
Chennaiyin 2+ goals
13%
Chennaiyin 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)
84%
Chennaiyin (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.63 · 19 matches

Chennaiyin away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.42 + Chennaiyin defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.76

Chennaiyin attack 0.60 + Jamshedpur defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jamshedpur scores more
65%
level
22%
Chennaiyin scores more
12%

Jamshedpur at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jamshedpur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. K. SananJamshedpurJamshedpur · M
8.3

Match Events

7'
M. K. Sanan↳ R. Gabriel
16'
Imran Khan
27'
R. Messi Bouli↳ N. Barla
46'
S. Prakadeswaran← I. Khan
58'
M. K. Sanan↳ R. Gabriel
59'
J. Singh← L. Hnamte
59'
I. Martin← M. Bemammer
61'
Mandar Rao Desai
65'
P. Laldinpuia← Eduardo Kau
69'
S. Prakadeswaran↳ I. Martin
72'
R. Tachikawa← M. Talal
74'
Sarthak Golui
78'
N. Stojanovic↳ N. Barla
81'
M. Zothanpuia← S. Golui
82'
Alberto Noguera
85'
V. Dakshinamurthy← M. Desai
87'
R. Das← M. K. Sanan
88'
M. Singh← R. Messi Bouli
88'
V. Barretto← R. Gabriel

Possession

51%Jamshedpur

Shots

20Jamshedpur

Pass accuracy

51%Jamshedpur

Statistics

JamshedpurChennaiyin
Overview
51%Possession49%
20Total Shots9
1.35Expected Goals (xG)0.79
5Corners3
10Fouls15
Shots
20Total Shots9
6On Target4
8Off Target5
6Blocked0
10Inside Box7
10Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
348Total Passes335
288Accurate Passes264
83%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls15
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Indian Super League: Jamshedpur 4–1 Chennaiyin

Jamshedpur beat Chennaiyin 4-1 in Indian Super League on April 25, 2026.

Goals: M. K. Sanan (7', 58'), R. Messi Bouli (27'), S. Prakadeswaran (69'), N. Stojanovic (78').

Jamshedpur controlled possession (51%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at JRD Tata Sports Complex in Jamshedpur.