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Jamshedpur vs ATK — Indian Super League 2019

Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
ATK
ATK
2/2/2020Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 15JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Jamshedpur31%
×Draw26%
ATK43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jamshedpur
1.15
ATK
1.40

ATK creates 22% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 10 away

creates per match

Jamshedpur
1.40
ATK
1.50

allows per match

Jamshedpur
1.30
ATK
0.90

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.00on par
ATK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

ATK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw
57%
Jamshedpur or ATK
74%
Draw or ATK
69%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+
12%
ATK wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals
68%
Jamshedpur 2+ goals
32%
Jamshedpur 3+ goals
11%
ATK 1+ goals
75%
ATK 2+ goals
41%
ATK 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)
42%
ATK (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 73 matches

ATK away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.40 + ATK defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.15

ATK attack 1.50 + Jamshedpur defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jamshedpur scores more
31%
level
26%
ATK scores more
43%

ATK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ATK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Indian Super League: Jamshedpur 0–3 ATK

ATK beat Jamshedpur 3-0 in Indian Super League on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at JRD Tata Sports Complex in Jamshedpur, Jharkhand.