Jamono Fatick 2–1 Stade de Mbour: Result & Stats

Jamono Fatick

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Stade de Mbour

11/5/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Caroline Faye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Jamono Fatick36%

×Draw33%

Stade de Mbour30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jamono FatickExpected goals in this matchStade de Mbour

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.83

Jamono Fatick

0.94

Stade de Mbour

0.83

Jamono Fatick creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 60 away

0.93

creates per match

0.70

0.96

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Jamono Fatick

0.93

Stade de Mbour

0.70

allows per match

Jamono Fatick

0.96

Stade de Mbour

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jamono Fatick+0.00on par

Stade de Mbour+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamono Fatick ↓

Stade de Mbour →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Jamono Fatick or draw

70%

Jamono Fatick or Stade de Mbour

67%

Draw or Stade de Mbour

64%

Winning margin

Jamono Fatick wins by 2+

13%

Stade de Mbour wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jamono Fatick 1+ goals

61%

Jamono Fatick 2+ goals

24%

Jamono Fatick 3+ goals

7%

Stade de Mbour 1+ goals

56%

Stade de Mbour 2+ goals

20%

Stade de Mbour 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)

55%

Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamono Fatick at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

Stade de Mbour away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamono Fatick attack 0.93 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Stade de Mbour attack 0.70 + Jamono Fatick defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jamono Fatick scores more

36%

level

33%

Stade de Mbour scores more

30%

Jamono Fatick at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jamono Fatick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff