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Jammerbugt vs Holstebro — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Jammerbugt
Jammerbugt
FT
1 – 0
Holstebro
Holstebro
4/5/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Jetsmark kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jammerbugt64%
×Draw22%
Holstebro14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jammerbugt
1.89
Holstebro
0.75

Jammerbugt creates 152% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jammerbugt
1.69
Holstebro
0.85

allows per match

Jammerbugt
0.65
Holstebro
2.08

finishing

Jammerbugt+0.00on par
Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jammerbugt ↓

Holstebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jammerbugt or draw
86%
Jammerbugt or Holstebro
78%
Draw or Holstebro
36%

Winning margin

Jammerbugt wins by 2+
39%
Holstebro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jammerbugt 1+ goals
85%
Jammerbugt 2+ goals
56%
Jammerbugt 3+ goals
29%
Holstebro 1+ goals
53%
Holstebro 2+ goals
17%
Holstebro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jammerbugt (draw refunded)
82%
Holstebro (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jammerbugt at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.65 · 26 matches

Holstebro away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jammerbugt attack 1.69 + Holstebro defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.89

Holstebro attack 0.85 + Jammerbugt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Jammerbugt scores more
64%
level
22%
Holstebro scores more
14%

Jammerbugt at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jammerbugt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Jammerbugt 1–0 Holstebro

Jammerbugt beat Holstebro 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 5, 2021.

The match was played at Jetsmark kunstgræsbane in Pandrup.