Jammerbugt 4–0 Holbæk B&I: Result & Stats

Jammerbugt

FT

4 – 0

Holbæk B&I

10/24/2020

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Jetsmark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jammerbugt59%

×Draw23%

Holbæk B&I18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JammerbugtExpected goals in this matchHolbæk B&I

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.85

Jammerbugt

1.75

Holbæk B&I

0.85

Jammerbugt creates 106% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

1.69

creates per match

1.05

0.65

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Jammerbugt

1.69

Holbæk B&I

1.05

allows per match

Jammerbugt

0.65

Holbæk B&I

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jammerbugt+0.00on par

Holbæk B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jammerbugt ↓

Holbæk B&I →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jammerbugt or draw

82%

Jammerbugt or Holbæk B&I

77%

Draw or Holbæk B&I

41%

Winning margin

Jammerbugt wins by 2+

33%

Holbæk B&I wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jammerbugt 1+ goals

83%

Jammerbugt 2+ goals

52%

Jammerbugt 3+ goals

25%

Holbæk B&I 1+ goals

57%

Holbæk B&I 2+ goals

21%

Holbæk B&I 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jammerbugt (draw refunded)

77%

Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jammerbugt at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.65 · 26 matches

Holbæk B&I away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jammerbugt attack 1.69 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.75

Holbæk B&I attack 1.05 + Jammerbugt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jammerbugt scores more

59%

level

23%

Holbæk B&I scores more

18%

Jammerbugt at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jammerbugt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff