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Jammerbugt vs FC Helsingor — 1. Division 2018

Jammerbugt
Jammerbugt
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
8/28/20211. Division1. Division · Round 7Jetsmark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jammerbugt28%
×Draw22%
FC Helsingor49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jammerbugt
1.39
FC Helsingor
1.89

FC Helsingor creates 36% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 80 away

creates per match

Jammerbugt
1.13
FC Helsingor
1.40

allows per match

Jammerbugt
2.38
FC Helsingor
1.65

finishing

Jammerbugt+0.00on par
FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jammerbugt ↓

FC Helsingor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jammerbugt or draw
51%
Jammerbugt or FC Helsingor
78%
Draw or FC Helsingor
72%

Winning margin

Jammerbugt wins by 2+
12%
FC Helsingor wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Jammerbugt 1+ goals
75%
Jammerbugt 2+ goals
40%
Jammerbugt 3+ goals
16%
FC Helsingor 1+ goals
85%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
56%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Jammerbugt (draw refunded)
37%
FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jammerbugt at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

FC Helsingor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jammerbugt attack 1.13 + FC Helsingor defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Helsingor attack 1.40 + Jammerbugt defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jammerbugt scores more
28%
level
22%
FC Helsingor scores more
49%

FC Helsingor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Jammerbugt 0–6 FC Helsingor

FC Helsingor beat Jammerbugt 6-0 in 1. Division on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Jetsmark Stadion in Pandrup.